Cotton growers from New South Wales to Queensland are expected to boost crop yields by 100,000 bales after a slew of recent rain on the east coast of Australia.
The latest prediction comes from Cotton Australia after farmers reported dry conditions for several months, with fears of many more months of El Niño conditions, reducing the dryland crop substantially and placing extra demands on irrigators with limited allocation.
According to the Weather Bureau, a rainband delivered widespread rainfall totals across much of the cotton growing regions in early October. The totals began to mount in early November when some regions of NSW gained in excess of 100 millimetres, with decent rainfall figures reported every week since.
Cotton Australia GM Michael Murray said the rain came just at the right time for some dryland cotton growers who otherwise may not have planted a crop.
“We have enjoyed two excellent years due to the rain, but growers have been concerned about the last few dry months in winter and spring when decisions were being made about the best crops to plant,” Murray said.
“That has changed over the last few weeks and many of those who rely on rain have received precious millimetres just at the right time.”
While many dryland growers have made the decision to plant cotton over the past few weeks, those with water allocation have also benefitted according to Cotton Australia, with many now able to save their water because the rain has done the job for them.
“With the dry conditions, we were looking at reducing the crop forecast for 2023-24 to below 4 million bales, but we now expect that we may be closer to 4.1 million bales with the potential to exceed that,” Murray said.
Two years ago, good rainfall assisted growers to produce a crop of around 5.6 million bales with around 5.5 million bales produced last year.
Murray said cotton growers may be able to achieve up to 4.5 million bales this season, but said much will depend on the ability of farmers to access their wet paddocks and plant over the coming weeks, as well as whether more rain is on the way.
During the week ending November 27, the Bureau reported widespread showers and thunderstorms impacted much of northern and eastern regions with weekly rainfall totals greater than 100 millimetres recorded in some parts of Queensland. The highest weekly rainfall total was 178.4 millimetres at Clermont Airport, near Emerald.
While the rain has been welcomed in most of the growing regions, some missed out or received very little rain, and conditions overall remain challenging.
The news comes as Cotton Outlook’s latest forecasts of global raw cotton production declined by more than half a million tonnes, reflecting falls in China, India, Turkey and Australia. However, the expected global cotton surplus has dropped from 787,000 tonnes last month to 188,000 tonnes.
“The combination of a drop in both overseas production and stock levels is positive for Australian cotton growers who last season produced one of the highest quality crops ever seen,” Murray said. “Buyers of quality and sustainable cotton are looking to Australia, particularly in those areas where there is a geographic advantage for transport to the mill.”
Looking ahead, the Bureau’s summer long-range forecast shows a high chance of warmer than usual days and nights across Australia, with below average rainfall likely for much of the tropics and Western Australia, and a more neutral rainfall signal for the rest of the continent.
After a drier than usual spring and winter for much of Australia, the more neutral summer rainfall forecast outside of the tropics may mean summer rainfall is closer to average for those areas.
Bureau of Meteorology national manager of climate services Dr Karl Braganza said forecasts leading into summer started to suggest the chance of average rainfall for large areas of eastern Australia.
"The forecasts suggested the chance of average rainfall for parts of the east towards the end of spring and early summer, and we have seen some decent rainfall in November to finish off the spring season," he said.
"Compared to outlooks issued mid year, the dry signal has continued to ease across the eastern half of the continent outside of the tropics."
But Dr Karl Braganza noted that summer is typically a drier time of year across the southern half of the continent and Western Australia has continued to see very dry conditions throughout spring, with no relieving rains.
Most of the continent has an increased chance of unusually high temperatures possibly in the top 20% of records for this time of year.
El Niño is predicted to continue over summer when its influence varies across the continent.
“El Niño is typically associated with a drier than average wet season in parts of Australia's tropical north while its influence on rainfall over southern parts of Australia wanes over summer,” Dr Braganza said.
Dr Braganza said the dry and warm conditions over much of spring along with the warm summer forecast were still contributing to an elevated fire risk this summer, with significant fire activity already reported across Australia.
“This summer all communities across Australia are urged to prepare for bushfire and monitor local conditions."
Despite the widespread storms in the second half of November, Australia's overall spring rainfall is tracking to be around 23% below average.
Much of Australia has experienced a drier and warmer spring than usual, which is typical of El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events.