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Sales in the online retail space have fallen by $126.8 million since June this year in seasonally adjusted terms according to new data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Total online retailing sales were $4.06 billion in September 2024, which fell by 1.3 per cent (or $52.9 million) compared to the prior month, following a fall of 1.6 per cent (or $65.8 million) in August 2024. 

However, seasonally adjusted through-the-year sales are up 8.9 per cent (or $333.1 million). 

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In original terms, online sales fell 1.7 per cent (down $71.3 million) in September 2024, with through-the-year original online sales remaining relatively unchanged with a slight fall of $400,000.

This follows a similar trajectory in recent years, where sales dip ahead of peak season trade. In original terms, online sales are expected to lift slightly in October and surge in November and slip slightly in December. 

Australian Retailers Association CEO Paul Zahra and National Retail Association interim CEO Lindsay Carroll believe that this trend of consumers pulling back on spending ahead of the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales season will continue this year - across both online and in-store.

Total retail sales in November 2022 and 2023 hit peaks before dipping in December. In November 2022, sales lifted by $266 million from the prior month to $35.4 billion. In 2023, sales growth doubled from October to November, lifting $620.4 million to $36.17 billion.

"In September, we saw most parts of retail go backwards and this will likely be the case with the October trading period as consumers save up ahead of the holiday trading season,” Carroll said.

“Discretionary item retailers have taken the biggest hit to sales since interest rates went up and they’ve been on the backfoot ever since. 

“A number of these businesses have gone into administration in the last two years and a [interest] rate cut before the year is out could restore some of that lost confidence.”

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Zahra also expects much of the spending to happen in November than December. 

“We’re seeing changing shopping habits from Australians as they continue to combat the cost-of-living crisis,” Zahra said.

“A record number of shoppers are expected to turn to the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales to buy Christmas presents to make their household budgets stretch further.

“Given the challenges experienced by the sector this year, retailers will be hoping to see sustained spending beyond that final weekend of November. 

“Discretionary retailers make up to two-thirds of their profits in the all-important Christmas trading period, hence it is critical to do well enough to be able to sustain the winter months. 

“Retailers employ tens of thousands of additional casual staff over the peak season providing many with the opportunity to earn additional income.”

The ABS also shows how online sales performed in September between food and non-food retail categories. 

Food online sales were $1.2 billion in September this year and non-food online sales were $2.8 billion, both in seasonally adjusted terms. Food sales fell 0.6 per cent (or $7 million) while non-food fell 1.6 per cent (or $46 million).

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In original terms, the proportion of online food retailing sales to total food retailing fell from 6.4 per cent to 6.3 per cent. The proportion for online non-food retailing sales to total non-food retailing remained unchanged at 17.8 per cent. 

In original terms, the proportion of online sales to total retailing remained unchanged at 11.4 per cent. The proportion of online sales to total retailing was 10.5 per cent at the same time last year.

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