ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was down 1.7 points in June to 83.2, miles below the 20-year average of 114.
This comes as inflation expectations bounced from 3.8 per cent back up to 4.2 per cent. It’s volatile, but gradually trending lower, according to ANZ and Roy Morgan.
Meanwhile, expected house price inflation ticked up from 3.2 per cent to 3.4 per cent.
“High inflation caused a level shift in consumer confidence, perhaps reflecting that high inflation affects everyone, whereas rising unemployment leaves the vast majority of people untouched,” ANZ and Roy Morgan reported.
“Consumer confidence plummeted when inflation took off, then was recovering as inflation fell until recession headlines came along and caused another drop.
“The rise in the question of whether it’s a good time to purchase a major household item this month suggests that ‘sticker shock’ could be fading, but the level of the indicator still suggests ongoing tough times for retailers.”
The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions fell from 89.5 to 87 in June, while the current conditions index fell just half a point to 77.4.
Net perceptions of current personal financial situations fell 7 points to negative 22 per cent with 20 per cent (down 5ppts) of New Zealanders saying they are now 'better off' financially than this time last year compared to 42 per cent (up 2ppts) saying they are now 'worse off'. Responses to this question have been particularly volatile lately, ANZ and Roy Morgan reported.
A net 8 per cent of New Zealanders expect to be 'better off' financially this time next year, up 2 points. This includes over a third of New Zealanders (37 per cent - up 1ppt), saying they expect to be 'better off' financially compared to 29 per cent (down 1ppt) who expect to be 'worse off'.
However, a net 23 per cent of New Zealanders think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, an improvement of 6 points, but still extremely cautious. This includes 26 per cent (up 4ppts) of New Zealanders who say now is a 'good time to buy' a major household item compared to 49 per cent (down 3ppts) who say it is a 'bad time to buy'.
Perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time fell 3 points to negative 39 per cent. The 5-year-ahead measure fell 6 points to 8 per cent.
House price inflation expectations ticked up from 3.2 per cent to 3.4 per cent year-on-year. Auckland expectations rose from 2.5 per cent to 4.2 per cent, in a turnaround from the downward trend in the preceding three months. But ANZ and Roy Morgan cautioned that they can be volatile.
Meanwhile, two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations bounced from 3.8 per cent to 4.2 per cent, but in the bigger picture they continue to trend lower.