The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are 5 per cent for the week ending July 28, up 0.1 percentage points from the month of June.
The 5 per cent figure is exactly in line with the average so far this year, and comes a week before the Reserve Bank of Australia announces its decision on interest rates on August 6.
Inflation expectations in June at 4.9 per cent were unchanged from the month of May, and was the equal lowest monthly figure so far in 2024.
Looking back over the first six months of the year, ANZ and Roy Morgan data showed weekly inflation expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.8 per cent - 5.3 per cent and averaged 5 per cent.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said the late July lift in inflation expectations came as average retail petrol prices passed 55 weeks being above $1.80 per litre.
“Average retail petrol prices hit a cycle high of $2.02 per litre in mid-June – up from a low of $1.85 earlier in the same month. Since then, average retail petrol prices have dropped by around seven cents per litre but on a monthly basis changed little from late June and throughout July,” Levine said.
Levine said the Australian Bureau of Statistics is set to release its June 2024 monthly consumer price index (CPI) figures this week, adding that these figures will be keenly watched to see if the increases seen in recent months continue. CPI rose from 3.4 per cent recorded in December to February quarter to 4 per cent in May.
“The good news is that average petrol prices declined in June, down by over three cents per litre and have declined further during the opening weeks of July before stabilising later in the month,” Levine said.
“The latest results from the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations suggest the upward pressures on inflation were short-lived during April and May and have since subsided in recent months as energy costs have fallen.
“The volatility in energy prices, and inflation expectations, shows how sensitive Australians are to changes in the prices of essential everyday goods – like petrol.”