ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has fallen 2.6 points to 84.2 last week following US President Trump’s announcements of world-wide tariffs.
This has in turn caused significant market volatility, with the ASX200 ending last week down 20 points and the Australian Dollar down by around 1 cent against the US dollar – although both were down significantly more earlier in the week.
Currently, the tariffs on China imports to the US are up at 145 per cent, with US goods into China tariffed at 125 per cent. Trump is currently calling on China to negotiate.
Consumer confidence is now 0.7 points above the same week a year ago, but is now 2.4 points below the 2025 weekly average of 86.4.
ANZ economist Sophia Angala said the drop likely reflects the more pessimistic global backdrop following US tariff announcements, adding that the previous week’s survey was taken partly before and partly after the initial announcement.
“Consumer confidence fell most sharply in subindices that describe the year ahead,” Angala said. “Both financial and economic confidence fell below their respective H2 2024 averages.
“In a speech last week, RBA Governor Bullock noted the RBA is focusing on how global uncertainty could impact household and business decisions domestically. We expect the RBA to cut the cash rate by 25bp at each of its May, July and August meetings this year.”
A look across the index shows the driver of the weekly decrease was less confidence about the next 12 months relating to personal finances and the performance of the Australian economy.
A fifth of Australians (20 per cent – up 1ppt), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 47 per cent (up 2ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Views on personal finances over the next year weakened with 28 per cent (down 2ppts) of respondents, expecting their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 30 per cent (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’.
Regarding the economy over the next year, confidence significantly weakened this week with just 10 per cent (down 2ppts) expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 33 per cent (up 5ppts) that expect ‘bad times’.
Net sentiment over the Australian economy in the longer term also weakened this week with 12 per cent (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to over a fifth, 22 per cent (up 2ppts) expecting ‘bad times’.
Net buying intentions were virtually unchanged this week with 22 per cent (up 2ppts) of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to 40 per cent (up 1ppt) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy major household items’.
Across the states, there were confidence decreases in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia, but a modest increase in New South Wales against the overall trend.