ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 1.6 points to 83.9 in mid-December following the end of the Black Friday sales period.
Consumer confidence is now 2.1 points above the same week a year ago and just one point above the 2024 weekly average of 82.9.
ANZ economist Madeline Dunk said there are signs that the upward trend in confidence, reported in recent weeks, has stalled, with the series down 4.5 points from the two-and-a-half-year peak a fortnight ago.
“Last week, confidence fell 1.6 points, to a nine-week low, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia signalling it was more comfortable with the inflation outlook following its December meeting, opening the door for rate cuts early next year,” Dunk said. “We expect the RBA to begin easing rates in May 2025, but a February cut is possible.”
Dunk added that the decline in confidence was driven by a 7.9 point fall in the ‘time to buy a major household item’ measure.
“The subindex has dropped 10.6pts over the past fortnight following the conclusion of Black Friday sales. This may suggest anecdotal reports of stronger November spending reflected a bring-forward in end-of-year spending.”
Now under a quarter of Australians (21 per cent - down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 49 per cent (down 1ppt) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Views on personal finances over the next year were virtually unchanged this week with under a third of respondents (31 per cent - down 1ppt) expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 32 per cent (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’.
Meanwhile, 10 per cent of respondents (up 1ppt) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 30 per cent (down 1ppt) who expect ‘bad times’.
Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term was virtually unchanged this week with 10 per cent (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 19 per cent (down 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.
There was a plunge in buying intentions this week to their lowest since early November with 25 per cent (down 5ppts) of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to a plurality of 47 per cent (up 3ppts) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy major household items’.